Category Prediction market · t… 2,034 direct transactions, 152,0246,992 token transfers (124 October 2026) Factory, Ether…/omen-subgraph) is archived Status 🟢 Activity Frontend dead at HTTP 200, con…racts in daily use by agents. About 3650 markets a day created in the 26 hours to 04:28 UTC on 24 October 2026, almost all by two Olas (https://ola…ince 22 April 2026 (both read 124 October 2026) Surfaces omen…/tooling/dao-tooling-overview)

Omen was the prediction market…ling directory for two reasons, and the second is the one nobody records:. First, it established the exact stack – Gnosis conditional to…er) rebuilt and runs on today; a. Second, its ending is not the ending iwebsite still loads but shows no markets, while software agents create markets own website reportsits contracts every day. Everything below was read f…g here is taken from coverage.

The app answers 200 and cannot…om/protofire/omen-exchange) , tells the same story more quietly –was opened on 5 September 2019, last pushed on 20 September 2023, default branch still master, never archived. Nobody closed Omen. They and never archived. No one announced Omen’s closure: its maintainers stopped answerupdating it, and the infrastructure underneath expired on its own scheduleservices it depends on were retired around it.

The contracts kept taking writ…f8aA2704D4730aAB16cbe7A) (3). Not a user base. Two machines. Ethereum mainnet is the cont…innet deployment barely moved.

Why a dead venue kept getting …as moved to one that did not. Omen did not die so much as stop being addressable by peoplePeople can no longer reach Omen through a browser, and programs still can. Re-read on 12 October 2026:…s event log records daily use.

What this changes about auditing a DAO’s tooling Omen is the cleanest availablea counterexample to two habits …6. When a DAO winds down, the interesting question is not what it shut off butrecord should include which of its components other people picked up –, a pattern the wiki treats at …aper approaches this Omen’s failure mode is a governance risk, not just an engineering one: the venue where decisions were priced became unreachable to the people whose decisions they were, while remaining perfectly reachable to whoever still had the address. A caper (/wiki/foundations/what-is-a-caper) is built so that the action that matters most to a holder does not sit behind a frontend. Exiting is a method on the component itself, called with the holder’s own vote and governance tokens in the transaction and paying out to an account they name – norontends stopped showing markets to the people who used them, while anyone holding a contract address could still trade. A caper (/wiki/foundations/what-is-a-caper) keeps a member’s exit on Caper’s own component on Radix, which a member calls from their own wallet, so leaving needs no website, indexer, no or hosted subgraph, no website in the path. If caper.network went dark tomorrow, a holder with a wallet and the component address could still leave. That is a lower ba. If caper.network went offline, a member could still exit for their fair tshan it sounds, and Omen is what it looks like when a project does not clear itre; Leaving a caper (/wiki/foundations/leaving-a-caper) covers what they receive.

Category Prediction market · t…eptember 2020, verified – 2,0354 direct transactions, 141,86052,024 token transfers (12 October 2026) Factory, Ethereum 0x89023D……ubgraph) is archived Status 🟠🟢 Frontend dead at HTTP 200, contracts callable and idle. Last market created 1 Aprilin daily use by agents. About 36 markets a day created in October 2026, and none since; the agent library that was creating themlmost all by two Olas (https://olas.network/) agent Safes; Gnosis’s own agent library has had no commit since 22 April 2026 (both re-read 8 Septemad 12 October 2026) Surfaces omen.eth …/tooling/dao-tooling-overview)

The contracts kept taking writ…ll gets used. The most recent direct calls to create2FixedProductMa…innet deployment barely moved.

Why a dead venue kept getting …dressable by people. Re-read three weeks later: the substrate stopped too Everything above was measured on 16 August 2026. Re-measured on 8 September 2026, not one figure moved. The Gnosis factory’s most recent inbound transaction is still the create2FixedProductMarketMaker call of 1 April 2026, and the fifty most recent still come from the same two addresses in the same 47/3 spon 12 October 2026: the agents never stopped This section said on 8 September 2026 that the agents had stopped too, and that was wrong. The August and September readings both counted only the transactions sent straight to the factory, and the last of those is still the 1 April call. A market created through a Safe multisig reaches the factory as an internal call, which never appears in that list. prediction-market-agent-tooling (https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent-tooling) still reports pushed_at of 22 April 2026 — the star count went from 58 to 60 and nothing else changed. protofire/omen-exchange (https://github.com/protofire/omen-exchange) is unchanged at 20 September 2023 and still unarchived; the subgraph (https://github.com/protofire/omen-subgraph) is still archived. ThatThe factory’s own FixedProductMarketMakerCreation events (https://gnosisscan.io/address/0x9083A2B699c0a4AD06F63580BDE2635d26a3eeF0?tab=logs) record every market whichever route it took: 6,723 created between 1 April and 12 October 2026, at least 849 in every full calendar month, the latest on 12 October (https://gnosisscan.io/tx/0xbeef5117633852c811f4c0f5f1e197e4495ebc0fad1cfbe8114ebd477397522b) asking whether an FCC proposal would still be pending on 16 October. Two Safes created 6,654 of them: 0x89c5cc…46Fec (https://gnosisscan.io/address/0x89c5cc945dd550BcFfb72Fe42BfF002429F46Fec) with 3,510 and 0xFfc802…3f557 (https://gnosisscan.io/address/0xFfc8029154ECD55ABED15BD428bA596E7D23f557) with 3,144. The source of Olas Predict, the prediction dashboard of the Olas (https://olas.network/) agent network, lists both as its market creators (https://github.com/valory-xyz/olas-predict/blob/main/constants/index.ts) , under the names Quickstart and Pearl. Olas’s trader agent (https://github.com/valory-xyz/trader) names Omen on Gnosis as the venue of its a different reading from the one this page was written to support. In August the honest summary was “the humans left, the machines stayed”. In September it is that the machines left five months ago as well, and the only thing keeping Omen distinguishable from an ordinary abandoned contract is that its abandonment is recent enough to still look like activity. An idle venueOmenstrat service and links aiomen.eth.limo for it; its repository was last pushed on 12 October 2026. Gnosis’s prediction-market-agent-tooling (https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent-tooling) still has no commit since 22 April 2026, so the September reading was right about that library and wrong about the venue. So the reading of 16 August stands: the browser frontends cannot show a market, and agents create and trade markets every day on the contracts underneath. The error generalises to andy a used one are the same object on a block explorer; only the date on the last write tells them apart,udit of a contract’s activity. A block explorer’s transaction list shows only calls made to and a date does that job for a shorter time than anyone writing it down expectsddress directly, so a contract driven through multisigs or other contracts can look idle there for months while its event log records daily use.

Category Prediction market · t…n Reality.eth (https://reality.eth.limo/appio.github.io/docs/html/index.html) attest…/tooling/dao-tooling-overview)

Omen was the prediction market…, Reality.eth (https://reality.eth.limo/appio.github.io/docs/html/index.html) resolu…g here is taken from coverage.

Category Prediction market · t…d dead at HTTP 200, contracts calivlable and idle. Last market created 1 April 2026 and none since; the agent library that was creating them has had no commit since 22 April 2026 (both re-read 8 September 2026) Surfaces omen.eth (https://…/tooling/dao-tooling-overview)

Why a dead venue still getskept getting writes: it became an agent su…re explained by software that iswas, when this was first written, very much alive. Gnosis maint…4, last pushed 22 April 2026, 5860 stars – a Python library for …p being addressable by people. Re-read three weeks later: the substrate stopped too Everything above was measured on 16 August 2026. Re-measured on 8 September 2026, not one figure moved. The Gnosis factory’s most recent inbound transaction is still the create2FixedProductMarketMaker call of 1 April 2026, and the fifty most recent still come from the same two addresses in the same 47/3 split. prediction-market-agent-tooling (https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent-tooling) still reports pushed_at of 22 April 2026 — the star count went from 58 to 60 and nothing else changed. protofire/omen-exchange (https://github.com/protofire/omen-exchange) is unchanged at 20 September 2023 and still unarchived; the subgraph (https://github.com/protofire/omen-subgraph) is still archived. That is a different reading from the one this page was written to support. In August the honest summary was “the humans left, the machines stayed”. In September it is that the machines left five months ago as well, and the only thing keeping Omen distinguishable from an ordinary abandoned contract is that its abandonment is recent enough to still look like activity. An idle venue and a used one are the same object on a block explorer; only the date on the last write tells them apart, and a date does that job for a shorter time than anyone writing it down expects.

What this changes about auditi… Gnosis Chain today, carrying 395 live futarchy markets441 futarchy markets of 2,003 Seer markets on that chain – up from 395 three weeks earlier, read from Seer’s own markets-search endpoint (https://app.seer.pm/) on 16 August and 8 September 2026. When a DAO winds down, the i…n a project does not clear it.

Category Prediction market · t… (https://aiomen.eth.limo/) · @Omen_eth (https://twitter.com/Omen_eth) · Telegram (https://t.me/omen…/tooling/dao-tooling-overview)

The app answers 200 and cannot… and redirects every query to error.thegraph.com/apierror.json (https://error.thegraph.com/apierror.json) – The Graph’s hosted service w…h expired on its own schedule.

Why a dead venue still gets wr…ion now points at the working rpc.gnosischain.com (https://rpc.gnosischain.com/) POST-only: it answers eth_blockNumber and 404s a plain GET) instead of the dead rpc.xdaic…p being addressable by people.

Category Prediction market · the venue DAO futarchy ran on before Seer (/wiki/dao-governance/tooling/voting/seer) Built by Gnosis, frontend by Protofire; governed by DXdao (/wiki/daos/dexs/dxdao) , whose dxdao.eth link the app still carries in its own footer Built on Gnosis Conditional Tokens Framework (https://github.com/gnosis/conditional-tokens-contracts) + fixed-product market makers Resolution Reality.eth (https://reality.eth.limo/app/docs/html/index.html) attestation with Kleros (/wiki/dao-governance/tooling/voting/kleros) arbitration – the same stack Seer uses today Factory, Gnosis Chain FPMMDeterministicFactory at 0x9083A2…3eeF0 (https://gnosis.blockscout.com/address/0x9083A2B699c0a4AD06F63580BDE2635d26a3eeF0) , deployed 4 September 2020, verified – 2,035 transactions, 141,860 token transfers Factory, Ethereum 0x89023D…76220 (https://eth.blockscout.com/address/0x89023DEb1d9a9a62fF3A5ca8F23Be8d87A576220) – three transactions in its life, the last a market created 8 May 2023 Code protofire/omen-exchange (https://github.com/protofire/omen-exchange) , AGPL-3.0, opened 5 September 2019, last pushed 20 September 2023; the subgraph repo (https://github.com/protofire/omen-subgraph) is archived Status 🟠 Frontend dead at HTTP 200, contracts alive. Last market created 1 April 2026 Surfaces omen.eth (https://omen.eth.limo/) · aiomen.eth (https://aiomen.eth.limo/) · @Omen_eth (https://twitter.com/Omen_eth) · Telegram (https://t.me/omen_eth) Related Seer (/wiki/dao-governance/tooling/voting/seer) · Futarchy Labs (/wiki/dao-governance/tooling/voting/futarchy-labs) · Futarchy (/wiki/dao-governance/concepts/voting/futarchy) · Winding down a DAO (/wiki/dao-governance/concepts/analysis/dao-wind-downs) · DAO tooling stack (/wiki/dao-governance/tooling/dao-tooling-overview)

Omen was the prediction market that DXdao (/wiki/daos/dexs/dxdao) governed and that most early DAO futarchy (/wiki/dao-governance/concepts/voting/futarchy) experiments ran on. It matters to a governance-tooling directory for two reasons, and the second is the one nobody records: it established the exact stack – Gnosis conditional tokens (https://github.com/gnosis/conditional-tokens-contracts) , Reality.eth (https://reality.eth.limo/app/docs/html/index.html) resolution, Kleros (/wiki/dao-governance/tooling/voting/kleros) arbitration, Gnosis Chain (/wiki/daos/networks/gnosisdao) settlement – that Seer (/wiki/dao-governance/tooling/voting/seer) rebuilt and runs on today; and its ending is not the ending its own website reports. Everything below was read first-hand on 16 August 2026 off keyless surfaces: the deployed frontend bundles at omen.eth.limo and aiomen.eth.limo, the GitHub API, the Gnosis Chain and Ethereum Blockscout APIs, and a public Gnosis RPC. Nothing here is taken from coverage.

The app answers 200 and cannot show you a market omen.eth.limo (https://omen.eth.limo/) returns HTTP 200 and a 4,001-byte application shell titled “Omen”. Every liveness check anyone runs – status code, content type, page title – reads green. The shell is a React app that fetches its markets on load, and each of the three things it fetches from is gone: - The market index. The bundle reads markets from api.thegraph.com/subgraphs/name/protofire/omen-xdai. That host now answers 301 and redirects every query to error.thegraph.com/apierror.json (https://error.thegraph.com/apierror.json) – The Graph’s hosted service was retired, and the subgraph was never republished to the decentralized network under this name. The subgraph repository (https://github.com/protofire/omen-subgraph) is archived, last pushed 24 January 2023. - The chain connection. The same bundle points at rpc.xdaichain.com, which has no DNS A record at all. Gnosis Chain retired that hostname; the frozen build never learned the new one. - Its own identity. Every og: and twitter: tag in the shell still points at http://omen.eth.link/, and the inline bootstrap script still branches on hostname.endsWith(".eth.link"). The build predates the ENS gateway migration that replaced .eth.link with .eth.limo. This is a sharper form of a failure the wiki tracks across its citations: a resource can die at HTTP 200. Here it is an entire application rather than a page. The frontend repository, protofire/omen-exchange (https://github.com/protofire/omen-exchange) , tells the same story more quietly – opened 5 September 2019, last pushed 20 September 2023, default branch still master, never archived. Nobody closed Omen. They stopped answering it, and the infrastructure underneath expired on its own schedule.

The contracts kept taking writes for three more years The market-maker factory on Gnosis Chain, FPMMDeterministicFactory at 0x9083A2B699c0a4AD06F63580BDE2635d26a3eeF0 (https://gnosis.blockscout.com/address/0x9083A2B699c0a4AD06F63580BDE2635d26a3eeF0) , was deployed on 4 September 2020 and is verified. Its lifetime counters read 2,035 transactions and 141,860 token transfers. Its code still returns from eth_getCode on a public RPC. It also still gets used. The most recent calls to create2FixedProductMarketMaker landed on 1 April 2026 – roughly two and a half years after the frontend’s last commit, and long after the app could display anything. Reading the fifty most recent inbound transactions, spanning 16 December 2025 to 1 April 2026, they come from exactly two addresses: 0x677C86…Fd02D (https://gnosis.blockscout.com/address/0x677C8693714280B275e28906EA441A04180Fd02D) (47 of them) and 0x3Cc14F…cbe7A (https://gnosis.blockscout.com/address/0x3Cc14F9a83DC12c02f8aA2704D4730aAB16cbe7A) (3). Not a user base. Two machines. Ethereum mainnet is the control case. The mainnet factory at 0x89023D…76220 (https://eth.blockscout.com/address/0x89023DEb1d9a9a62fF3A5ca8F23Be8d87A576220) carries three transactions in its entire history, the last of them a market created on 8 May 2023. Omen was a Gnosis Chain product in practice from the start, and the mainnet deployment barely moved.

Why a dead venue still gets writes: it became an agent substrate The two addresses are explained by software that is very much alive. Gnosis maintains prediction-market-agent-tooling (https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent-tooling) – opened 8 February 2024, last pushed 22 April 2026, 58 stars – a Python library for deploying autonomous agents that trade and create prediction markets. It ships a full markets/omen/ module, and its factory class (https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent-tooling/blob/main/prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/omen_contracts.py) hardcodes the address above, character for character. Its supported-platforms table (https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent-tooling#the-market-platforms) lists three venues, and the one it supports for reading, betting and creating is AIOmen. aiomen.eth.limo (https://aiomen.eth.limo/) is Omen’s frontend rebuilt for that audience, and the rebuild is almost literal: its HTML shell is byte-identical to omen.eth.limo’s except for the two JavaScript chunk hashes. The bundle inside was partly repaired – the chain connection now points at the working rpc.gnosischain.com (https://rpc.gnosischain.com/) instead of the dead rpc.xdaichain.com – but it still reads its market index from the same retired hosted-service subgraph. Both browser frontends are blind for the same reason. The agents are not. The Python library reads Omen through The Graph’s decentralized network instead, at gateway subgraph IDs behind an API key (https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent-tooling/blob/main/prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/omen_subgraph_handler.py) . That single migration is the whole divergence. The read path a human needs was left on a service that shut down; the read path a program needs was moved to one that did not. Omen did not die so much as stop being addressable by people.

What this changes about auditing a DAO’s tooling Omen is the cleanest available counterexample to two habits that DAO directories, this one included, fall into. A live domain is not a live product, and a frozen repository is not a dead protocol. Checked from the outside, Omen looks maintained: the site resolves, the repository is unarchived, the social accounts still exist. Checked from the inside, its data layer has been gone for years. Meanwhile the part everyone treats as the archaeology – the deployed contracts – is the part still doing work. The two signals point in opposite directions, and the on-chain one is the one that is hard to fake. The stack outlives the organization that paid for it. DXdao (/wiki/daos/dexs/dxdao) wound down; Omen’s frontend froze; and the conditional-tokens-plus-Reality.eth-plus-Kleros arrangement Omen proved out is exactly what Seer (/wiki/dao-governance/tooling/voting/seer) runs on Gnosis Chain today, carrying 395 live futarchy markets. When a DAO winds down, the interesting question is not what it shut off but which of its components other people picked up – a pattern the wiki treats at length in winding down a DAO (/wiki/dao-governance/concepts/analysis/dao-wind-downs) . How Caper approaches this Omen’s failure mode is a governance risk, not just an engineering one: the venue where decisions were priced became unreachable to the people whose decisions they were, while remaining perfectly reachable to whoever still had the address. A caper (/wiki/foundations/what-is-a-caper) is built so that the action that matters most to a holder does not sit behind a frontend. Exiting is a method on the component itself, called with the holder’s own vote and governance tokens in the transaction and paying out to an account they name – no indexer, no hosted subgraph, no website in the path. If caper.network went dark tomorrow, a holder with a wallet and the component address could still leave. That is a lower bar than it sounds, and Omen is what it looks like when a project does not clear it.