---
title: "Omen"
url: "https://caper.network/wiki/dao-governance/tooling/voting/omen"
updated: 2026-08-16
license: CC-BY-4.0
license_url: "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
---

# Omen

| Category | Prediction market · the venue DAO futarchy ran on before [Seer](/wiki/dao-governance/tooling/voting/seer) |
| --- | --- |
| Built by | Gnosis, frontend by Protofire; governed by [DXdao](/wiki/daos/dexs/dxdao), whose `dxdao.eth` link the app still carries in its own footer |
| Built on | [Gnosis Conditional Tokens Framework](https://github.com/gnosis/conditional-tokens-contracts) + fixed-product market makers |
| Resolution | [Reality.eth](https://reality.eth.limo/app/docs/html/index.html) attestation with [Kleros](/wiki/dao-governance/tooling/voting/kleros) arbitration – the same stack Seer uses today |
| Factory, Gnosis Chain | `FPMMDeterministicFactory` at [0x9083A2…3eeF0](https://gnosis.blockscout.com/address/0x9083A2B699c0a4AD06F63580BDE2635d26a3eeF0), deployed **4 September 2020**, verified – 2,035 transactions, 141,860 token transfers |
| Factory, Ethereum | [0x89023D…76220](https://eth.blockscout.com/address/0x89023DEb1d9a9a62fF3A5ca8F23Be8d87A576220) – **three transactions in its life**, the last a market created 8 May 2023 |
| Code | [protofire/omen-exchange](https://github.com/protofire/omen-exchange), AGPL-3.0, opened 5 September 2019, **last pushed 20 September 2023**; [the subgraph repo](https://github.com/protofire/omen-subgraph) is **archived** |
| Status | 🟠 **Frontend dead at HTTP 200, contracts alive.** Last market created **1 April 2026** |
| Surfaces | [omen.eth](https://omen.eth.limo/) · [aiomen.eth](https://aiomen.eth.limo/) · `@Omen_eth` · [Telegram](https://t.me/omen_eth) |
| Related | [Seer](/wiki/dao-governance/tooling/voting/seer) · [Futarchy Labs](/wiki/dao-governance/tooling/voting/futarchy-labs) · [Futarchy](/wiki/dao-governance/concepts/voting/futarchy) · [Winding down a DAO](/wiki/dao-governance/concepts/analysis/dao-wind-downs) · [DAO tooling stack](/wiki/dao-governance/tooling/dao-tooling-overview) |

**Omen** was the prediction market that [DXdao](/wiki/daos/dexs/dxdao) governed and that most early DAO [futarchy](/wiki/dao-governance/concepts/voting/futarchy) experiments ran on. It matters to a governance-tooling directory for two reasons, and the second is the one nobody records: it established the exact stack – [Gnosis conditional tokens](https://github.com/gnosis/conditional-tokens-contracts), [Reality.eth](https://reality.eth.limo/app/docs/html/index.html) resolution, [Kleros](/wiki/dao-governance/tooling/voting/kleros) arbitration, [Gnosis Chain](/wiki/daos/networks/gnosisdao) settlement – that [Seer](/wiki/dao-governance/tooling/voting/seer) rebuilt and runs on today; and its ending is not the ending its own website reports.

Everything below was read first-hand on 16 August 2026 off keyless surfaces: the deployed frontend bundles at `omen.eth.limo` and `aiomen.eth.limo`, the GitHub API, the Gnosis Chain and Ethereum Blockscout APIs, and a public Gnosis RPC. Nothing here is taken from coverage.

## The app answers 200 and cannot show you a market

[omen.eth.limo](https://omen.eth.limo/) returns HTTP 200 and a 4,001-byte application shell titled “Omen”. Every liveness check anyone runs – status code, content type, page title – reads green. The shell is a React app that fetches its markets on load, and each of the three things it fetches from is gone:

- **The market index.** The bundle reads markets from `api.thegraph.com/subgraphs/name/protofire/omen-xdai`. That host now answers **301** and redirects every query to `error.thegraph.com/apierror.json` – The Graph’s hosted service was retired, and the subgraph was never republished to the decentralized network under this name. [The subgraph repository](https://github.com/protofire/omen-subgraph) is archived, last pushed 24 January 2023.
- **The chain connection.** The same bundle points at `rpc.xdaichain.com`, which has **no DNS A record at all**. Gnosis Chain retired that hostname; the frozen build never learned the new one.
- **Its own identity.** Every `og:` and `twitter:` tag in the shell still points at `http://omen.eth.link/`, and the inline bootstrap script still branches on `hostname.endsWith(".eth.link")`. The build predates the ENS gateway migration that replaced `.eth.link` with `.eth.limo`.

This is a sharper form of a failure the wiki tracks across its citations: a resource can die at HTTP 200. Here it is an entire application rather than a page. The frontend repository, [protofire/omen-exchange](https://github.com/protofire/omen-exchange), tells the same story more quietly – opened 5 September 2019, last pushed 20 September 2023, default branch still `master`, never archived. Nobody closed Omen. They stopped answering it, and the infrastructure underneath expired on its own schedule.

## The contracts kept taking writes for three more years

The market-maker factory on Gnosis Chain, `FPMMDeterministicFactory` at [0x9083A2B699c0a4AD06F63580BDE2635d26a3eeF0](https://gnosis.blockscout.com/address/0x9083A2B699c0a4AD06F63580BDE2635d26a3eeF0), was deployed on **4 September 2020** and is verified. Its lifetime counters read **2,035 transactions and 141,860 token transfers**. Its code still returns from `eth_getCode` on a public RPC.

It also still gets used. The most recent calls to `create2FixedProductMarketMaker` landed on **1 April 2026** – roughly two and a half years after the frontend’s last commit, and long after the app could display anything. Reading the fifty most recent inbound transactions, spanning 16 December 2025 to 1 April 2026, they come from exactly **two addresses**: [0x677C86…Fd02D](https://gnosis.blockscout.com/address/0x677C8693714280B275e28906EA441A04180Fd02D) (47 of them) and [0x3Cc14F…cbe7A](https://gnosis.blockscout.com/address/0x3Cc14F9a83DC12c02f8aA2704D4730aAB16cbe7A) (3). Not a user base. Two machines.

Ethereum mainnet is the control case. The mainnet factory at [0x89023D…76220](https://eth.blockscout.com/address/0x89023DEb1d9a9a62fF3A5ca8F23Be8d87A576220) carries **three transactions in its entire history**, the last of them a market created on 8 May 2023. Omen was a Gnosis Chain product in practice from the start, and the mainnet deployment barely moved.

## Why a dead venue still gets writes: it became an agent substrate

The two addresses are explained by software that is very much alive. Gnosis maintains [prediction-market-agent-tooling](https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent-tooling) – opened 8 February 2024, last pushed **22 April 2026**, 58 stars – a Python library for deploying autonomous agents that trade and create prediction markets. It ships a full `markets/omen/` module, and [its factory class](https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent-tooling/blob/main/prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/omen_contracts.py) hardcodes the address above, character for character. Its [supported-platforms table](https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent-tooling#the-market-platforms) lists three venues, and the one it supports for reading, betting _and_ creating is **AIOmen**.

[aiomen.eth.limo](https://aiomen.eth.limo/) is Omen’s frontend rebuilt for that audience, and the rebuild is almost literal: its HTML shell is byte-identical to `omen.eth.limo`’s except for the two JavaScript chunk hashes. The bundle inside was partly repaired – the chain connection now points at the working `rpc.gnosischain.com` (POST-only: it answers `eth_blockNumber` and 404s a plain GET) instead of the dead `rpc.xdaichain.com` – but it still reads its market index from the same retired hosted-service subgraph. Both browser frontends are blind for the same reason.

The agents are not. The Python library reads Omen through The Graph’s **decentralized network** instead, at [gateway subgraph IDs behind an API key](https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent-tooling/blob/main/prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/omen_subgraph_handler.py). That single migration is the whole divergence. The read path a human needs was left on a service that shut down; the read path a program needs was moved to one that did not. Omen did not die so much as stop being addressable by people.

## What this changes about auditing a DAO’s tooling

Omen is the cleanest available counterexample to two habits that DAO directories, this one included, fall into.

**A live domain is not a live product, and a frozen repository is not a dead protocol.** Checked from the outside, Omen looks maintained: the site resolves, the repository is unarchived, the social accounts still exist. Checked from the inside, its data layer has been gone for years. Meanwhile the part everyone treats as the archaeology – the deployed contracts – is the part still doing work. The two signals point in opposite directions, and the on-chain one is the one that is hard to fake.

**The stack outlives the organization that paid for it.** [DXdao](/wiki/daos/dexs/dxdao) wound down; Omen’s frontend froze; and the conditional-tokens-plus-Reality.eth-plus-Kleros arrangement Omen proved out is exactly what [Seer](/wiki/dao-governance/tooling/voting/seer) runs on Gnosis Chain today, carrying 395 live futarchy markets. When a DAO winds down, the interesting question is not what it shut off but which of its components other people picked up – a pattern the wiki treats at length in [winding down a DAO](/wiki/dao-governance/concepts/analysis/dao-wind-downs).

## How Caper approaches this

Omen’s failure mode is a governance risk, not just an engineering one: the venue where decisions were priced became unreachable to the people whose decisions they were, while remaining perfectly reachable to whoever still had the address. A [caper](/wiki/foundations/what-is-a-caper) is built so that the action that matters most to a holder does not sit behind a frontend. Exiting is a method on the component itself, called with the holder’s own vote and governance tokens in the transaction and paying out to an account they name – no indexer, no hosted subgraph, no website in the path. If caper.network went dark tomorrow, a holder with a wallet and the component address could still leave. That is a lower bar than it sounds, and Omen is what it looks like when a project does not clear it.